Tim Russert

As Tim Russert might be saying right now, Ohio, Ohio, Ohio.

Also, Ohio, Ohio, Ohio.

First Presidential Debate Preview

Mitt Romney v. Jim Lehrer

Estimated questions about US Debt downgrade, national debt, deficit, record of number of people on food stamps: 0

Estimated questions on “Fast and Furious:” 0

Estimated questions about birth control: 17

 

Strickland Part II

Part II meaning a possible 2nd run for governor.

Look, just because someone was a terrible governor doesn’t mean they also have terrible judgment (though it may).

Strickland isn’t an idiot. He knows he would face an uphill battle to beat Kasich in 2014. Doesn’t have a whole lot to do with Kasich, just has to do with Strickland’s poor record. But if he keeps the option open to running, people talk about it (like Tuesday’s Dispatch – no link due to their new paywall), you get invited to speak places, you are asked to be on news shows, etc.

Strickland is milking this for all its worth. Tough to see him running a race even he knows deep down he would lose.

Virginia

If this election stays close, 2000 and 2004 style, looks from our vantage point that the key is Virginia. Most polls show Obama leading there consistently. Talk about a state that has swung – wow. Was an afterthought before 2008; most outlets didn’t even consider it a toss-up or showdown state, depending on how they word things. Bush won 54-46% in 2004 and it wasn’t really contested, though it was correctly said that it was trending D (that is what happens when the population grows with a massive amount of government bureaucrats.)

So if it is a close race, how do you get to 270 (or 269) if you are Romney while losing Virginia? It’s tough. Play around with some scenarios at 270towin.com and you can see for yourself.

Plausible to say that Romney wins Ohio and Florida while losing Virginia. Puts Obama at 285 if you assume the 2004 map (minus Colorado, Nevada, Iowa and New Mexico to Obama). How does Romney get the 16 he needs? even with Iowa and Colorado he is one short – and we wouldnt bank on Nevada or New Hampshire.  Wisconsin maybe? Has been fools gold for the GOP, and not sure if Ryan changes it.

Bottom line its – tough for Romney without Virginia, and that makes the major assumptions that he takes Florida (probably) and Ohio (50/50).

Of course, this election should break wide open towards Romney, based on Obama’s awful record, but it hasnt happened yet. It may; right now it kind of looks like 2008 in reverse. McCain led in a lot of polls at this time, but deep down most supporters knew the fundamentals were too strong against him and the tide would turn. Maybe the same happens this time, maybe not.  We’ll know soon.

 

 

Exit Stage Moderate: Steve LaTourette

Surprising. Everyone “knew” he was going to do 1 or 2 more terms then call it a day. Except that wasn’t how it ended up.

We’ll find out the real reasons down the road….I don’t think anyone buys his tired lines of “gridlock” and “too much partisanship.” You don’t just bail at the end of July when the election is in November and you are a shoo-in for reelection.

The real story, though, is the behind the scenes jockeying to replace him. Not even sure I would want to be one of the county chairs with a vote on who the replacement nominee will be at this point, getting unsolicited phone calls from people talking up their candidacies. We also imagine the pressure will be amped up on this Dale Blanchard to get out of the race on the Democrat side. The guess is he says screw you to the party leaders, the same ones who have always said the same to him when he has run in the past.

Question: Dennis Kucinich taking a look at running? We heard Betty Sutton was thinking about it (switching to run here), but she is too busy releasing fake polls touting her ahead of Renacci to do that.

The Prediction.

Everyone is out there reading “tea leaves” on Thursday’s Supreme Court decision, so we might as well offer up our prediction.

Roberts writes the majority opinion, 7-2 to strike down the mandate. He is joined by all but Ginsberg and Kagan.

After that, it gets murky with a few split and separate opinions as to what should be done with the rest of the law.

 

No one is talking about it, but another interesting case to be decided tomorrow is “The Stolen Valor Act,” regarding lying about earning military medals. It’s reprehensible, but we guess the court says it is protected free speech in a near unanimous decision, with Clarence Thomas writing the majority opinion.

There is a third case tomorrow, but no one really cares about it.

What’s Up With Michigan?

Minus one recent Rasmussen poll, things have looked pretty tight there. we aren’t going to go over all of them – if you found this obscure corner of the WWW, then you have seen them. So is this a mirage?

We don’t buy that Romney kind of being from Michigan is helping him. You also wouldn’t think that his comments about letting GM go bankrupt is really helpful. So what gives?

Probably not as true as it used to be, but there is an old theory that says Michigan is one of the few states that actually see Republicans do better in polls in the summer months than Democrats (typically, this is reversed a little bit). Why? Because all the union people in Michigan are using a lot of their 280 days of yearly vacation in the summer. Not as many union households there as there used to be, but they are still there. And they probably still like to vacation.

Not sure if this is the explanation or not, but the bottom line is that the best case scenario for Romney is to make Obama spend resources there. It’s really hard to envison that Micgihan will decide the race…..if Romney wins gets to 270, Michigan is going to be a bonus on a great night.

Our best guess says that Obama is up a few there, and probably will remain that way as the union workers return home from wherever they went and that is countered by the folks not paying attention starting to tune in.

Electoral Map Update #1

Could Obama win the Electoral College but lose the popular vote? No. Matthew Dowd lays it out, but seems far fetched to us. The article inevitably led to this Electoral Map update.

We look at it as coming down to Ohio, Florida, and Virginia coming back to the GOP. If the three, surprisingly, it looks like right now Virginia is the trickiest. We think Romney ends up winning Florida by 3-4, similar to the Bush / Kerry numbers.

Lets just assume that Romney does win those three states. If that happens he needs one of the following to cross 270 (or just get there, in the case of New Hampshire)  – assuming he holds all the McCain 2008 states (and if that doesn’t happen, this is all a moot point): Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire, Iowa, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Michigan. Or any other state out there. Just one. To us, in order of easiest to most difficult pickup it goes: Iowa, New Hampshire, Colorado, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Mexico.

That has to be the strategy, as of now. Got to won Florida, Ohio, and Virginia, then focus on the two states they think they have the best chance to win. Romney polling is probably more accurate than the guess work here, so they should know.

Yeah, we have been slacking, but now that the election is starting to kick it in to full gear, so will we here at Red Ohio. Next time, handicapping the VP stakes.

Just How Competitive is the Ohio Senate Race?

Very. This analysis below by Roll Call’s Stuart Rothenberg looks accurate, even down to the point that says Mandel is a slight underdog at this point. Lazy post below.

Some races are easy to handicap. Two essentially evenly matched candidates in a competitive state normally produces a tossup rating, while a popular entrenched incumbent against an under-funded, unknown challenger almost always produces something close to a safe contest for the incumbent.

But the Senate race in Ohio is more complicated. It’s certainly a competitive state, as recent presidential races have shown. And it’s regarded as one of the cycle’s tossups in the 2012 race between President Barack Obama and presumptive GOP nominee Mitt Romney.

November Match Set

I guess when faced with a loss in his home state, Rick Santorum finally decided to call it quits.

No matter whether you wanted him to win the nomination, you must admit that he exceeded all expectations and put a scare into the front-runner, Mitt Romney. But that is over now, and it is game on.

After everything settles down here over the next week or two, then it will be interesting to see what the polling shows. Both sides expect it to be a close race in November. Maybe later tonight, time depending, we can look at a Path to 270 for Romney, assuming it will be a 2000 or 2004 style, tight race. Of course, before that happens, we need to figure out what states gained and lost Electoral Votes. We know Ohio lost 2 and Texas gained about 60, but everything in between is a little murky.