If this election stays close, 2000 and 2004 style, looks from our vantage point that the key is Virginia. Most polls show Obama leading there consistently. Talk about a state that has swung – wow. Was an afterthought before 2008; most outlets didn’t even consider it a toss-up or showdown state, depending on how they word things. Bush won 54-46% in 2004 and it wasn’t really contested, though it was correctly said that it was trending D (that is what happens when the population grows with a massive amount of government bureaucrats.)

So if it is a close race, how do you get to 270 (or 269) if you are Romney while losing Virginia? It’s tough. Play around with some scenarios at and you can see for yourself.

Plausible to say that Romney wins Ohio and Florida while losing Virginia. Puts Obama at 285 if you assume the 2004 map (minus Colorado, Nevada, Iowa and New Mexico to Obama). How does Romney get the 16 he needs? even with Iowa and Colorado he is one short – and we wouldnt bank on Nevada or New Hampshire.  Wisconsin maybe? Has been fools gold for the GOP, and not sure if Ryan changes it.

Bottom line its – tough for Romney without Virginia, and that makes the major assumptions that he takes Florida (probably) and Ohio (50/50).

Of course, this election should break wide open towards Romney, based on Obama’s awful record, but it hasnt happened yet. It may; right now it kind of looks like 2008 in reverse. McCain led in a lot of polls at this time, but deep down most supporters knew the fundamentals were too strong against him and the tide would turn. Maybe the same happens this time, maybe not.  We’ll know soon.



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