Exit Stage Moderate: Steve LaTourette

Surprising. Everyone “knew” he was going to do 1 or 2 more terms then call it a day. Except that wasn’t how it ended up.

We’ll find out the real reasons down the road….I don’t think anyone buys his tired lines of “gridlock” and “too much partisanship.” You don’t just bail at the end of July when the election is in November and you are a shoo-in for reelection.

The real story, though, is the behind the scenes jockeying to replace him. Not even sure I would want to be one of the county chairs with a vote on who the replacement nominee will be at this point, getting unsolicited phone calls from people talking up their candidacies. We also imagine the pressure will be amped up on this Dale Blanchard to get out of the race on the Democrat side. The guess is he says screw you to the party leaders, the same ones who have always said the same to him when he has run in the past.

Question: Dennis Kucinich taking a look at running? We heard Betty Sutton was thinking about it (switching to run here), but she is too busy releasing fake polls touting her ahead of Renacci to do that.

Just How Competitive is the Ohio Senate Race?

Very. This analysis below by Roll Call’s Stuart Rothenberg looks accurate, even down to the point that says Mandel is a slight underdog at this point. Lazy post below.

Some races are easy to handicap. Two essentially evenly matched candidates in a competitive state normally produces a tossup rating, while a popular entrenched incumbent against an under-funded, unknown challenger almost always produces something close to a safe contest for the incumbent.

But the Senate race in Ohio is more complicated. It’s certainly a competitive state, as recent presidential races have shown. And it’s regarded as one of the cycle’s tossups in the 2012 race between President Barack Obama and presumptive GOP nominee Mitt Romney.

Using Technology – Great Example

A good example of how you can use Facebook to skewer your opponents here. Someone, presumably with the Bill Johnson campaign, set up a Facebook page that is a “timeline” (using the new page format) to chronicle former Congressman and 2012 opponent Charlie Wilson’s votes and history in office. Pretty good. I expect to see more campaigns copy this idea.

Looks like they will get a lot more likes after this blog post. Kidding, kidding.

http://www.facebook.com/pages/Say-Sorry-Charlie/313963168663299

First Thoughts

Late, but still first thoughts.

President: Not surprised. Expected a close Romney win.

OH-2: Obviously the stunner of anywhere last night, not just Ohio. Schmidt was going to be beat at some point, but this was still a surprise. The shill blogs fed information and talking points from Team Schmidt must also be very surprised. And wondering how they got taken. Probably would not have wanted to be around Mean Jean today. Or really ever, actually.

OH-6: The rematch between Bill Johnson and Charlie Wilson is now official. Johnson is the favorite here for a lot of reasons, but mainly because the new district is more Republican than it was. Wilson’s previous votes aren’t much of a help to him at all.

OH-7 (old): Steve Austria is still really pissed.

OH-9: Kucinich was slaughtered, and I think a lot of folks were surprised by the wide margin. We were a little bit, but he never really had a chance the way that district was drawn. He will be back in some capacity because he has the ego that tells him he is needed and because he doesn’t know how to work in the private sector.

OH-16: Renacci v. Sutton is now official. Going to be a tough race, but one Renacci should win. This is a race to keep an eye on, certainly.

State Central Committee Races: Tough to tell, as both sides are claiming victory. We’re inclined to think that DeWine has the edge over Kasich / Priesse but until we see something solid, no one really knows. Of course, no one really knows how some of these people are going to vote for certain.

Unless you are a candidate, family member, consultant, or a local news reporter, no one cares about the other local races anymore.

Dispatch: Tea party, Democrats aim to unseat pair of GOP congressmen

Good luck. Glad they got their name in the paper today (at least the Tea Party candidates) since in a couple of days they will be old news.

Bill Yarbrough admits to being a long-shot challenger against six-term GOP incumbent Pat Tiberi in Ohio’s reconfigured 12th Congressional District. Yet Yarbrough says he has won a “moral victory” because his better-known opponent has aired radio spots against him.

“If he has to go use my name, we consider that a victory,” Yarbrough said. “Based on the negative ads, he’s probably seen polling that gives him worry.”

That said, the campaigns for the 12th and 15th districts are somewhat like sportswriters’ frequent descriptions of Big Ten football: two top teams, with the rest of the league chasing them.

The top teams here are clearly the Republican incumbents: Tiberi in the 12th District and Rep. Steve Stivers in the 15th.

Tiberi, of Genoa Township, and Stivers, of Upper Arlington, have name recognition, money, party backing and incumbency on their side, making it a big mountain for challengers to climb, despite a recent Gallup Poll showing that just 10 percent of Americans think Congress is doing a good job. Both men are opposed by tea party loyalists who argue that the incumbents are not conservative enough.

At the same time, two Democrats are running for their party’s nomination in each district on Tuesday, vying for the chance to take on the GOP nominees in November.

Tiberi is airing a limited number of radio spots asking why Yarbrough is attacking “our Pat Tiberi.” He also notes that Yarbrough doesn’t live in the district — that’s not a legal requirement. Yarbrough’s New Albany home was cut out of the district last year when Republicans redrew the boundaries.

Yarbrough says the district has become more conservative after shedding Democratic-leaning communities in northeastern Franklin County and picking up territory stretching north to Mansfield and east to Zanesville.

Yarbrough says he’s committed to smaller government and individual liberty, and he thinks Tiberi hasn’t done enough to reduce federal spending and deficits.

With little money for a campaign, Yarbrough said he is speaking to community groups and has bought radio spots. “We’re saying a little prayer, and we’ll see what happens,” he said.

Tiberi says he reflects the views of his district. Campaign manager Kristen Frissora said Tiberi has been a “consistent conservative who has a proven record of getting things done for Ohioans.” She touted his priorities of “cutting the deficit, decreasing spending, reforming the tax code, reducing regulations and getting people back on the job” as evidence of his conservative credentials.

In the 15th, Stivers’ challenger, Charles S. Chope of Upper Arlington, considers himself a “real conservative” in a district that has shifted to the right with its expansion from three counties to 12. It now stretches from western Franklin and Madison counties south to Wilmington and east to McConnelsville.

Read more in the Dispatch article here.

Turner to Challenge Fudge, For Reals

Everyone knew this was all but official anyways….but now it is “officially official.”

We know John Kasich didn’t read this in the Plain Dealer, but we did:

State Sen. Nina Turner confirms: ‘I’m in this race’ to face U.S. Rep. Marcia Fudge

CLEVELAND, Ohio — State Sen. Nina Turner, whose oratorical skills and take-no-guff attitude have made her a rising star in Ohio politics, confirmed Tuesday that she will challenge U.S. Rep. Marcia Fudge next year in a Democratic primary.

The decision, which Turner shared in a telephone interview with The Plain Dealer, did not come as a total surprise. She had been considering a possible congressional bid for months and on Monday quietly filed a candidacy petition with the Cuyahoga County Board of Elections.

Fudge spokesman Belinda Prinz – yes, former Cleveland Fox 8 reporter – said Fudge is “prepared to run on her record.” In a D +12,286 indexed district, that likely works.

I wonder what it is like to run in a district (R or D) where the only election that matters (if any does at all) is the primary. I know quite a few Congressfolks would like to have such a situation. Must be nice.

Not sure if Kasich reads blogs. So not sure if he knows about this story. Maybe someone on his staff told him.