Strickland Part II

Part II meaning a possible 2nd run for governor.

Look, just because someone was a terrible governor doesn’t mean they also have terrible judgment (though it may).

Strickland isn’t an idiot. He knows he would face an uphill battle to beat Kasich in 2014. Doesn’t have a whole lot to do with Kasich, just has to do with Strickland’s poor record. But if he keeps the option open to running, people talk about it (like Tuesday’s Dispatch – no link due to their new paywall), you get invited to speak places, you are asked to be on news shows, etc.

Strickland is milking this for all its worth. Tough to see him running a race even he knows deep down he would lose.

McGee Brown Running For Reelection

Of course she is, but wonder what her chances are.

She is the only true Democrat on the Court, appointed by outgoing Gov. Strickland at the end of 2010 after Ted was unable to stumble across the finish line with a victory. One can’t really draw from those results as far as 2012 for McGee Brown goes – it was totally a Kasich v. Strickland affair.

Brown will face Sharon Kennedy, a domestic relations judge from Butler Co. If you spent any time on the Republican dinner/meeting/event circuit last year, you know Kennedy was literally everywhere trying to drum up support for her cause, which she ultimately received by getting the ORP endorsement.

Got to think Democrats really want to keep this seat, but how much will they spend to keep it? And of course, how much will the GOP be willing to spend on it. Part of us thinks they’ll spend what they think they need to so they can keep a foothold in the court, the other half of us thinks they won’t drain resources into winning a seat when regardless of the outcome they’ll still be a minority.

Obviously this race is nowhere near important as the state central committee overthrow races are, as you’ll see by the money that is going to be and has been spent for the Kasich & Co. coup attempt.

But we have two popular and common ballot last names: Brown and Kennedy.

Never Too Early (?)

All the Richard Cordray in the news got us thinking. Cordray has long been known to have both eyes firmly on the job of Ohio Governor. So, for argument’s sake, let’s say he has a nice long tenure in his recently acquired position. Who does that leave on the Democratic side to run against John Kasich in 2014 (assuming he runs again)?

The election, of course, is way off, but Kasich isn’t exactly making friends with Democrats, Independents, or Republicans. So if he finds himself in the same weak position now in late 2013 / early 2014, who might run against him? You’d have to think Democrats would fight one another for the opportunity.

Here is the list we came up with, assuming Cordray is out; feel free to add any additional names.

Ted Strickland: The former governor hasn’t exactly put to rest the rumors he wants a rematch, and if he does, he would probably be a frontrunner. That said, we don’t buy he would seriously run – his age coupled with the fact that he wouldn’t want to risk a second loss probably would keep him out. Feels like bluster.

Tim Ryan: Probably as of now the one to keep your eye on. If Ted doesn’t run, Ryan likely has his backing. They have a long history, and rumors say Ryan is seriously pondering the option. Ryan has baggage (who doesn’t) but would likely be a strong candidate. If you ask “those in the know,” he is the answer you will get.

Mike Coleman: Always a name brought up in these discussions. The Columbus Mayor wanted the nomination in 2006, but was pushed / stepped aside for Strickland. You might believe he passed on running in the newly created Dem district in Columbus because he wants this. He also now no longer has his ex-wife and her issues trailing him.

Jimmy Dimora: Pending the result of his corruption trial……..

John Boccieri: Says he only wants to be in Congress, but not sure who turns down being a gubentorial nominee. Problem for him is that he voted for health care, cap and trade, and the stimulus. Those votes never go away.

David Pepper: The 2010 loser in the auditor’s race might put up a bunch of money and make some noise.

That’s off the top of our head. Probably more, but looks like a good first list.

Handicapping Kucinich v. Kaptur

Would have been nice to see both go, but thats not an option.

We were driving tonight and got involved in this conversation: As a Republican, and you were forced to cross over and vote for Dennis or Marcy in the primary, who would you choose?

Well, we both chose Dennis. Here’s why.

No one takes Dennis serious. He is “just Dennis.” Doesn’t really do anything good or bad legislation wise – he is just there getting on the news, grandstanding. He isn’t going to hurt anyone. Kaptur, the longest serving person in the Ohio Congressional delegation, is a true committed liberal, who believes in the cause (Dennis may have at one point).

Anyways. Kaptur is favored with the 50,000 extra D’s from her old district. Kucinich shouldn’t be taken for granted. He is a tough campaigner (unless running for president) and has a known name and Kaptur is like 89 years old think. (Actually we looked it up – both were born in 1946, Kaptur just looks like she was born in 1846). And, Kaptur has the huge money advantage – though not sure if that is that big of a deal, because no one lives in Toledo or Cleveland anymore.

So for now, after that in-depth analysis, we’ll choose Kaptur just based on the numbers. But she isn’t going to cruise to number.

Sorry, not going to choose Joe the Plumber over either.

Sick of Redistricting

I assume one is the 11th?

DDN: Montgomery and Greene counties are part of something unusual in Ohio — a competitive U.S. House district.

An analysis released Wednesday by the Ohio Campaign for Accountable Redistricting concluded just three of the 16 new districts in the congressional map created by Republicans and signed into law last week by Republican Gov. John Kasich are competitive.

So sick of hearing about this. We here are going to try and not talk about this anymore, but it may be tough, if not impossible. Sorry the districts weren’t drawn to the Democrats liking. Yes, we get it. Ohio is a “50-50” state. Well, it wasn’t in 2010, and that is when it mattered for these line drawing purposes. If it was up to us, we would have drawn them 13-3, leaving Fudge, Ryan, and another one (does it really matter).

Now, that State Rep. seat Chris Redfern is running for was drawn equally so both sides had a chance to win right? Because that would be the fair thing to do.

Maybe the Kasich staff can help him get his petitions signed and turned in to the Board of Elections. KIDDING. Sort of.

Redfern Mad DCCC Didn’t Want to Waste Money

Roll Call: Ohio Democratic Party Chairman Chris Redfern blasted the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee for refusing to help fund the party’s efforts to fight the state’s new Congressional map.

“I’m deeply disappointed by the response from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee,” Redfern told Roll Call. “Knowing that we had a chance to limit our losses as a Congressional delegation and actually, we were in one of those rare situations, where we could have dictated our future from a map-drawing standpoint.”

The DCCC didn’t spend money because they knew there weren’t going to be enough signatures. Pretty much everyone knew that. Even Redfern, despite his attempt to save face here. Hence his attempt to shift blame. Why should they keep money for valuable races in 2012 when they can help his image!!!!

Without the signatures, the Democrats fighting the redistricting maps really had no leverage. Likely any GOP map would have held up in court and the GOP could have also just forced through a map even more punishing to Democrats, which was possible. So they had to sign on to a deal.

As Republicans, its easy to sit here and say “to the victors go the spoils” but its actually true.

Recall Elections Rejected

Dayton Daily News: The Republican-controlled House Tuesday turned back an effort by Democrats to give Ohio voters the chance to recall governors, other statewide nonjudicial officials and state legislators before their terms are up. The vote to table – and kill – the proposal was 56-36.

After seeing the havoc recall elections have on other states (and seeing the hand wringing over the cost of additional election days), the Ohio House did the right thing in killing an effort to bring recall elections here. Governor Kasich was elected by Ohioans and Ohioans will have their say again in 2014 one way or another.

But the same holds true for the State Republican Party. Kevin DeWine was re-elected unanimously last fall, and this effort to undermine him in the middle of his term, and on the eve of a vitally important election year is ill conceived to be generous. Just as we should resist efforts from Democrats to undermine John Kasich’s administration, so should we resist efforts by Republicans to undermine the good work the state party has done in 2010 and 2011 – before it is too late.

Signature Effort Not Looking Promising

Plain Dealer: Democrat-led petition drive on congressional boundries lacking cash, relying on volunteers

You can read the article in it’s entirety, but the sum it is this: It doesn’t look good for the Ohio Democratic Party in their effort to get the new congressional lines on the ballot.

The article says it, but word on the street is that it is highly unlikely they will meet their signature goal.

Looking more and more everyday now like the original lines that were signed into law will be the ones that are used moving forward for the next 10 years.

The Democrats certainly had their chance for “fair lines” back in 2010, but they wouldn’t back the GOP-led effort to get that process moving, instead choosing to take their chances on the elections last year. And they lost.