First Thoughts

Late, but still first thoughts.

President: Not surprised. Expected a close Romney win.

OH-2: Obviously the stunner of anywhere last night, not just Ohio. Schmidt was going to be beat at some point, but this was still a surprise. The shill blogs fed information and talking points from Team Schmidt must also be very surprised. And wondering how they got taken. Probably would not have wanted to be around Mean Jean today. Or really ever, actually.

OH-6: The rematch between Bill Johnson and Charlie Wilson is now official. Johnson is the favorite here for a lot of reasons, but mainly because the new district is more Republican than it was. Wilson’s previous votes aren’t much of a help to him at all.

OH-7 (old): Steve Austria is still really pissed.

OH-9: Kucinich was slaughtered, and I think a lot of folks were surprised by the wide margin. We were a little bit, but he never really had a chance the way that district was drawn. He will be back in some capacity because he has the ego that tells him he is needed and because he doesn’t know how to work in the private sector.

OH-16: Renacci v. Sutton is now official. Going to be a tough race, but one Renacci should win. This is a race to keep an eye on, certainly.

State Central Committee Races: Tough to tell, as both sides are claiming victory. We’re inclined to think that DeWine has the edge over Kasich / Priesse but until we see something solid, no one really knows. Of course, no one really knows how some of these people are going to vote for certain.

Unless you are a candidate, family member, consultant, or a local news reporter, no one cares about the other local races anymore.

“Retirement” Watch – Steve Austria

Kind of like when an NBA player retires because no one wants to sign him anymore, Steve Austria retired because no one wanted him to run.

Dayton Daily News: Republican U.S. Rep. Steve Austria of Beavercreek announced Friday that he will not seek re-election, allowing the party to avoid what could have been a contentious primary with Rep. Mike Turner, R-Centerville.

The updated article at least mentions that Austria was in a bad spot with the makeup of the new 10th (some haven’t mentioned that), but let’s face it – he had about a 5% chance of beating Turner. Looks like even Austria wasn’t dumb enough to run. He had about the same $ that Turner had, but Turner just had too many of his own voters. Looks like Austria got the message, finally.

One lie that has been going around during this whole process of drawing the new lines is that the Republican who was going to be cut “had to come from SW Ohio” because so many were there. Not really – if you look at the map you can see that it would have been pretty easy to draw just about any of the incumbent Republicans off the map. The new map also proves that if the right people want you to stay in Congress – they’ll find you a favorable district somewhere. Just ask Bob Gibbs.

But back to Austria. When no one wants to work on your staff, none of your colleagues like you, everyone that used to like you turns on you, then you probably won’t get a favorable draw. That describes Steve Austria. Lets just say he wasn’t the most popular member of the Ohio delegation.

But don’t feel bad for Steve Austria. Even though he “retires” after 4 years in Congress, he will still get his congressional pension.

Lastly, a quote from the article. What??? Austria said he considered several options: running against Turner in the 10th or moving to the 15th or 8th districts and running against U.S. Rep. Steve Stivers, R-Columbus, or House Speaker Boehner, R-West Chester Twp. Austria said he made his decision Thursday night after consulting with his family.

So, happy retirement, Steve. Don’t worry, your absence will hardly be noticed.

Ohio’s Five Freshman

Decent article here about the 5 Ohio Freshman Republicans and their first year in office (looks like you have to count Steve Chabot in there).

Hard to believe that when you look forward to 2012, that all 5 of them are now sitting in more favorable districts than they were when they were elected. Of course, that doesn’t mean they will all win. But when you looked at the map and the numbers before the maps were redrawn, it didn’t look like a good possibility.

Nothing else to really add, so not the greatest post. Just bringing it to your attention. Also just realized we previously said no more redistricting talk. Due to the abbreviated nature of the post, probably ok on that front.

Might rank them or something like that after finishing up eating some leftover ham.

Sick of Redistricting

I assume one is the 11th?

DDN: Montgomery and Greene counties are part of something unusual in Ohio — a competitive U.S. House district.

An analysis released Wednesday by the Ohio Campaign for Accountable Redistricting concluded just three of the 16 new districts in the congressional map created by Republicans and signed into law last week by Republican Gov. John Kasich are competitive.

So sick of hearing about this. We here are going to try and not talk about this anymore, but it may be tough, if not impossible. Sorry the districts weren’t drawn to the Democrats liking. Yes, we get it. Ohio is a “50-50” state. Well, it wasn’t in 2010, and that is when it mattered for these line drawing purposes. If it was up to us, we would have drawn them 13-3, leaving Fudge, Ryan, and another one (does it really matter).

Now, that State Rep. seat Chris Redfern is running for was drawn equally so both sides had a chance to win right? Because that would be the fair thing to do.

Maybe the Kasich staff can help him get his petitions signed and turned in to the Board of Elections. KIDDING. Sort of.

Steve Austria Pissed

Or at least “shocked and upset” according to this Dispatch article from this afternoon. I guess everyone but him knew what the new map was going to look like.

Apparently when you are universally disliked by everyone, and someone from your party has to get the short end of the stick, it might just be you. Let’s just say Austria isn’t the most popular congressman within the Ohio delegation. He should lose to Mike Turner in the new 10th (handily), though we aren’t sure anyone actually knows anything about Turner, anything he has done, or what he looks like.

Personally, we would have liked to see a Stivers-Austria matchup, but oh well. That said, the Austria-Turner showdown should be bloody. Austria has nothing to lose, so should be an interesting couple of months.

You’d have to say Jim Renacci is probably a little displeased also, though the recent poll that shows him tied with Betty Sutton seems a little far fetched. Wayne and the portion of Medina County he has should ensure his victory in 2012.

On the flip side, you’d also have to say that fellow frosh both Bob Gibbs and Bill Johnson made out well. Gibbs famously said that “Washington doesn’t like him much,” but obviously someone does like him when you consider he could have been drawn into an incumbent v. incumbent race – but instead got a new district that has a lot of his old territory from his statehouse days.

Now we know the battle lines. Finally.

Update: Source says the new 15th has 38% of Austria’s old voters and 35% of Stivers’s. Austria has said he won’t run against him, but when it’s that or leave Congress…..