Archive for June 2012

The Prediction.

June 28, 2012

Everyone is out there reading “tea leaves” on Thursday’s Supreme Court decision, so we might as well offer up our prediction.

Roberts writes the majority opinion, 7-2 to strike down the mandate. He is joined by all but Ginsberg and Kagan.

After that, it gets murky with a few split and separate opinions as to what should be done with the rest of the law.

 

No one is talking about it, but another interesting case to be decided tomorrow is “The Stolen Valor Act,” regarding lying about earning military medals. It’s reprehensible, but we guess the court says it is protected free speech in a near unanimous decision, with Clarence Thomas writing the majority opinion.

There is a third case tomorrow, but no one really cares about it.

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What’s Up With Michigan?

June 21, 2012

Minus one recent Rasmussen poll, things have looked pretty tight there. we aren’t going to go over all of them – if you found this obscure corner of the WWW, then you have seen them. So is this a mirage?

We don’t buy that Romney kind of being from Michigan is helping him. You also wouldn’t think that his comments about letting GM go bankrupt is really helpful. So what gives?

Probably not as true as it used to be, but there is an old theory that says Michigan is one of the few states that actually see Republicans do better in polls in the summer months than Democrats (typically, this is reversed a little bit). Why? Because all the union people in Michigan are using a lot of their 280 days of yearly vacation in the summer. Not as many union households there as there used to be, but they are still there. And they probably still like to vacation.

Not sure if this is the explanation or not, but the bottom line is that the best case scenario for Romney is to make Obama spend resources there. It’s really hard to envison that Micgihan will decide the race…..if Romney wins gets to 270, Michigan is going to be a bonus on a great night.

Our best guess says that Obama is up a few there, and probably will remain that way as the union workers return home from wherever they went and that is countered by the folks not paying attention starting to tune in.

Electoral Map Update #1

June 7, 2012

Could Obama win the Electoral College but lose the popular vote? No. Matthew Dowd lays it out, but seems far fetched to us. The article inevitably led to this Electoral Map update.

We look at it as coming down to Ohio, Florida, and Virginia coming back to the GOP. If the three, surprisingly, it looks like right now Virginia is the trickiest. We think Romney ends up winning Florida by 3-4, similar to the Bush / Kerry numbers.

Lets just assume that Romney does win those three states. If that happens he needs one of the following to cross 270 (or just get there, in the case of New Hampshire)  – assuming he holds all the McCain 2008 states (and if that doesn’t happen, this is all a moot point): Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire, Iowa, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Michigan. Or any other state out there. Just one. To us, in order of easiest to most difficult pickup it goes: Iowa, New Hampshire, Colorado, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Mexico.

That has to be the strategy, as of now. Got to won Florida, Ohio, and Virginia, then focus on the two states they think they have the best chance to win. Romney polling is probably more accurate than the guess work here, so they should know.

Yeah, we have been slacking, but now that the election is starting to kick it in to full gear, so will we here at Red Ohio. Next time, handicapping the VP stakes.