Posted tagged ‘Romney’

Virginia

August 22, 2012

If this election stays close, 2000 and 2004 style, looks from our vantage point that the key is Virginia. Most polls show Obama leading there consistently. Talk about a state that has swung – wow. Was an afterthought before 2008; most outlets didn’t even consider it a toss-up or showdown state, depending on how they word things. Bush won 54-46% in 2004 and it wasn’t really contested, though it was correctly said that it was trending D (that is what happens when the population grows with a massive amount of government bureaucrats.)

So if it is a close race, how do you get to 270 (or 269) if you are Romney while losing Virginia? It’s tough. Play around with some scenarios at 270towin.com and you can see for yourself.

Plausible to say that Romney wins Ohio and Florida while losing Virginia. Puts Obama at 285 if you assume the 2004 map (minus Colorado, Nevada, Iowa and New Mexico to Obama). How does Romney get the 16 he needs? even with Iowa and Colorado he is one short – and we wouldnt bank on Nevada or New Hampshire.  Wisconsin maybe? Has been fools gold for the GOP, and not sure if Ryan changes it.

Bottom line its – tough for Romney without Virginia, and that makes the major assumptions that he takes Florida (probably) and Ohio (50/50).

Of course, this election should break wide open towards Romney, based on Obama’s awful record, but it hasnt happened yet. It may; right now it kind of looks like 2008 in reverse. McCain led in a lot of polls at this time, but deep down most supporters knew the fundamentals were too strong against him and the tide would turn. Maybe the same happens this time, maybe not.  We’ll know soon.

 

 

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What’s Up With Michigan?

June 21, 2012

Minus one recent Rasmussen poll, things have looked pretty tight there. we aren’t going to go over all of them – if you found this obscure corner of the WWW, then you have seen them. So is this a mirage?

We don’t buy that Romney kind of being from Michigan is helping him. You also wouldn’t think that his comments about letting GM go bankrupt is really helpful. So what gives?

Probably not as true as it used to be, but there is an old theory that says Michigan is one of the few states that actually see Republicans do better in polls in the summer months than Democrats (typically, this is reversed a little bit). Why? Because all the union people in Michigan are using a lot of their 280 days of yearly vacation in the summer. Not as many union households there as there used to be, but they are still there. And they probably still like to vacation.

Not sure if this is the explanation or not, but the bottom line is that the best case scenario for Romney is to make Obama spend resources there. It’s really hard to envison that Micgihan will decide the race…..if Romney wins gets to 270, Michigan is going to be a bonus on a great night.

Our best guess says that Obama is up a few there, and probably will remain that way as the union workers return home from wherever they went and that is countered by the folks not paying attention starting to tune in.

Electoral Map Update #1

June 7, 2012

Could Obama win the Electoral College but lose the popular vote? No. Matthew Dowd lays it out, but seems far fetched to us. The article inevitably led to this Electoral Map update.

We look at it as coming down to Ohio, Florida, and Virginia coming back to the GOP. If the three, surprisingly, it looks like right now Virginia is the trickiest. We think Romney ends up winning Florida by 3-4, similar to the Bush / Kerry numbers.

Lets just assume that Romney does win those three states. If that happens he needs one of the following to cross 270 (or just get there, in the case of New Hampshire)  – assuming he holds all the McCain 2008 states (and if that doesn’t happen, this is all a moot point): Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire, Iowa, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Michigan. Or any other state out there. Just one. To us, in order of easiest to most difficult pickup it goes: Iowa, New Hampshire, Colorado, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Mexico.

That has to be the strategy, as of now. Got to won Florida, Ohio, and Virginia, then focus on the two states they think they have the best chance to win. Romney polling is probably more accurate than the guess work here, so they should know.

Yeah, we have been slacking, but now that the election is starting to kick it in to full gear, so will we here at Red Ohio. Next time, handicapping the VP stakes.

November Match Set

April 10, 2012

I guess when faced with a loss in his home state, Rick Santorum finally decided to call it quits.

No matter whether you wanted him to win the nomination, you must admit that he exceeded all expectations and put a scare into the front-runner, Mitt Romney. But that is over now, and it is game on.

After everything settles down here over the next week or two, then it will be interesting to see what the polling shows. Both sides expect it to be a close race in November. Maybe later tonight, time depending, we can look at a Path to 270 for Romney, assuming it will be a 2000 or 2004 style, tight race. Of course, before that happens, we need to figure out what states gained and lost Electoral Votes. We know Ohio lost 2 and Texas gained about 60, but everything in between is a little murky.

First Thoughts

March 8, 2012

Late, but still first thoughts.

President: Not surprised. Expected a close Romney win.

OH-2: Obviously the stunner of anywhere last night, not just Ohio. Schmidt was going to be beat at some point, but this was still a surprise. The shill blogs fed information and talking points from Team Schmidt must also be very surprised. And wondering how they got taken. Probably would not have wanted to be around Mean Jean today. Or really ever, actually.

OH-6: The rematch between Bill Johnson and Charlie Wilson is now official. Johnson is the favorite here for a lot of reasons, but mainly because the new district is more Republican than it was. Wilson’s previous votes aren’t much of a help to him at all.

OH-7 (old): Steve Austria is still really pissed.

OH-9: Kucinich was slaughtered, and I think a lot of folks were surprised by the wide margin. We were a little bit, but he never really had a chance the way that district was drawn. He will be back in some capacity because he has the ego that tells him he is needed and because he doesn’t know how to work in the private sector.

OH-16: Renacci v. Sutton is now official. Going to be a tough race, but one Renacci should win. This is a race to keep an eye on, certainly.

State Central Committee Races: Tough to tell, as both sides are claiming victory. We’re inclined to think that DeWine has the edge over Kasich / Priesse but until we see something solid, no one really knows. Of course, no one really knows how some of these people are going to vote for certain.

Unless you are a candidate, family member, consultant, or a local news reporter, no one cares about the other local races anymore.

South Carolina Preview

January 12, 2012

With the South Carolina primary fast approaching, the quest comntiues to find the “anti-Romney.” With that in mind…

Nothing. It’s over. Like it or not. You might be able to say “well, only a handful of delegates have been awarded!” True. But, who (or is it whom???) is going to leapfrog Romney and how are they going to do it?

Ron Paul has about a .36% chance because of his supporters, but if that is alternative you are looking for for the general, well, we don’t know what to tell you.

On a semi-related note, Mitt will be the keynote speaker at the Cuyahoga County Lincoln Day Dinner. What? Isn’t Joe the Plumber running in the new 9th?

Romney, McCain, and Electability

January 3, 2012

We are starting to hear the “nominating McCain didn’t work out, so why go with Romney” theme develop in some circles. To us, that is nothing but a talking point that only works if elections are conducted in vacuums with no other factors at play. Of course, in real elections, that is the case. Other stuff matters that just the candidate.

We aren’t endorsing anyone at this point, as if anyone cares, but there are quite a few differences between the two, their campaigns, and the circumstances.

1. While it is true that Romney over time has not been the most conservative, he has not taken pleasure and/or intentionally jabbed his finger in the eyes of conservatives. McCain seems to get a kick out of it. Didn’t play well.

2. Romney isn’t running in an election of “Bush Fatigue,” whereas McCain was. Not a defense of McCain, but 2008 going in was going to be a very tough election to win no matter what for the GOP. Obviously his uneven performance didn’t help matters.

3. Not only was 2008 a tough year for the GOP, but once the stock market crashed, it didn’t matter anymore. There was nothing that McCain could have done.  May or may not happen again (largely depending on Europe) but this time it won’t be to the detriment of the Republican candidate.

4. Democrats, after 8 years of power in 2008, were fired up and wanted “change.” Now, the other side wants change – probably more than the Democrats did in either 2004 or 2008. 

5. Simply, the Obama mystique has worn off. That isn’t to say he won’t win, but now he has a record other than voting present in Illinois and he isn’t a blank slate that voters can turn into whatever they want to see. 

Romney, as it turned out, was politically fortunate to have lost the nomination in 2008. Can’t say for sure – and we don’t think he would have fared as poorly as McCain did, but he wouldn’t have won the general. Now he finds himself the frontrunner for the nomination against an extremely vulnerable president.

We shall see what happens tonight, but regardless, it doesn’t change the difference between the two and the circumstances.