Electoral Map Update #1

Posted June 7, 2012 by redohio2012
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Could Obama win the Electoral College but lose the popular vote? No. Matthew Dowd lays it out, but seems far fetched to us. The article inevitably led to this Electoral Map update.

We look at it as coming down to Ohio, Florida, and Virginia coming back to the GOP. If the three, surprisingly, it looks like right now Virginia is the trickiest. We think Romney ends up winning Florida by 3-4, similar to the Bush / Kerry numbers.

Lets just assume that Romney does win those three states. If that happens he needs one of the following to cross 270 (or just get there, in the case of New Hampshire)  – assuming he holds all the McCain 2008 states (and if that doesn’t happen, this is all a moot point): Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire, Iowa, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Michigan. Or any other state out there. Just one. To us, in order of easiest to most difficult pickup it goes: Iowa, New Hampshire, Colorado, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Mexico.

That has to be the strategy, as of now. Got to won Florida, Ohio, and Virginia, then focus on the two states they think they have the best chance to win. Romney polling is probably more accurate than the guess work here, so they should know.

Yeah, we have been slacking, but now that the election is starting to kick it in to full gear, so will we here at Red Ohio. Next time, handicapping the VP stakes.

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Just How Competitive is the Ohio Senate Race?

Posted May 30, 2012 by redohio2012
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Very. This analysis below by Roll Call’s Stuart Rothenberg looks accurate, even down to the point that says Mandel is a slight underdog at this point. Lazy post below.

Some races are easy to handicap. Two essentially evenly matched candidates in a competitive state normally produces a tossup rating, while a popular entrenched incumbent against an under-funded, unknown challenger almost always produces something close to a safe contest for the incumbent.

But the Senate race in Ohio is more complicated. It’s certainly a competitive state, as recent presidential races have shown. And it’s regarded as one of the cycle’s tossups in the 2012 race between President Barack Obama and presumptive GOP nominee Mitt Romney.

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November Match Set

Posted April 10, 2012 by redohio2012
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I guess when faced with a loss in his home state, Rick Santorum finally decided to call it quits.

No matter whether you wanted him to win the nomination, you must admit that he exceeded all expectations and put a scare into the front-runner, Mitt Romney. But that is over now, and it is game on.

After everything settles down here over the next week or two, then it will be interesting to see what the polling shows. Both sides expect it to be a close race in November. Maybe later tonight, time depending, we can look at a Path to 270 for Romney, assuming it will be a 2000 or 2004 style, tight race. Of course, before that happens, we need to figure out what states gained and lost Electoral Votes. We know Ohio lost 2 and Texas gained about 60, but everything in between is a little murky.

Dispatch: UAW will lobby for ouster of Chris Redfern

Posted April 7, 2012 by redohio2012
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Ohio’s United Auto Workers union will lobby for the ouster of Ohio Democratic Party chairman Chris Redfern, The Dispatch has learned. 

Sources said UAW Region 2B president Ken Lortz will send a letter to the state party’s 66-member central committee Monday urging that Redfern be replaced by Lorain County Chairman Anthony Giardini when the committee elects a chairman Wednesday night. 

I guess if the man who beat him in every single state race in 2010, Kevin DeWine, has to go, then Redfern should too.  At least in this case there is a valid reason to get rid of the guy – the party got slaughtered under his leadership and he is running for State Rep.

Using Technology – Great Example

Posted March 26, 2012 by redohio2012
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A good example of how you can use Facebook to skewer your opponents here. Someone, presumably with the Bill Johnson campaign, set up a Facebook page that is a “timeline” (using the new page format) to chronicle former Congressman and 2012 opponent Charlie Wilson’s votes and history in office. Pretty good. I expect to see more campaigns copy this idea.

Looks like they will get a lot more likes after this blog post. Kidding, kidding.

http://www.facebook.com/pages/Say-Sorry-Charlie/313963168663299

Ben Nelson: I don’t regret my vote for Obamacare

Posted March 26, 2012 by redohio2012
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Then you also don’t regret that you are “retiring” from the Senate?

Politico: The senator who paved the way for health care reform has a message for his legion of critics as the two-year-old law heads to the U.S. Supreme Court: Kiss off.

Republicans vilified Nebraska Democrat Ben Nelson for cutting a $100 million backroom deal for his state, then casting the crucial 60th vote for President Barack Obama’s landmark legislative achievement. The so-called Cornhusker Kickback dogs Nelson to this day and has even been invoked against former Sen. Bob Kerrey in the Democrat’s just-launched bid to succeed Nelson in the Senate.litico:

 

 

Interesting development for rural Ohioans

Posted March 21, 2012 by redohio2012
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There’s a move afoot by phone carriers to stop providing guaranteed basic local phone service to every Ohioan.  It’s called “carrier of last resort” and it’s been a backbone of the phone system for years.  It’s SB 271 currently under consideration in the general assembly.

So what’s behind it?  And why should we care?

You’ve probably already guessed what’s behind it – money.  It costs money to provide service to rural Ohioans.  Often seniors or less affluent citizens, these people aren’t buying the expensive long distance packages and goodie bags of add-ons.

And we should care for numerous reasons.  The first, is that the phone companies are using the leverage of their deregulatuon from several years ago to go after this additional change.  But the last deregulation didn’t exactly go well.  The phone companies promised more jobs, but AT&T has fewer employees in Ohio today than the day the deregulation passed.  They promised a commission to review deregulation and produce a report, but no commission has even been named much less any report released.  Finally, they said service wouldn’t suffer.  They certainly can’t make that claim now.

In case you’re wondering if local phone service matters in this digital / mobile age, try driving through southern Ohio and see how your cell phone performs.  We’re even talking life and death.  9-1-1 service, and a person’s ability to get help depends on the phone company allowing access to basic local service.

Kentucky is in the midst of the same fight.  This isn’t even a partisan issue.  It’s one of common sense and public safety.  Even the AARP has weighed in, because many of those impacted will be seniors with no other lifeline to the outside world.

Stay tuned for more information coming on this.  It’s something we’ll be keeping our eyes on.