Electoral Map Update #1

Could Obama win the Electoral College but lose the popular vote? No. Matthew Dowd lays it out, but seems far fetched to us. The article inevitably led to this Electoral Map update.

We look at it as coming down to Ohio, Florida, and Virginia coming back to the GOP. If the three, surprisingly, it looks like right now Virginia is the trickiest. We think Romney ends up winning Florida by 3-4, similar to the Bush / Kerry numbers.

Lets just assume that Romney does win those three states. If that happens he needs one of the following to cross 270 (or just get there, in the case of New Hampshire)  – assuming he holds all the McCain 2008 states (and if that doesn’t happen, this is all a moot point): Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire, Iowa, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Michigan. Or any other state out there. Just one. To us, in order of easiest to most difficult pickup it goes: Iowa, New Hampshire, Colorado, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Mexico.

That has to be the strategy, as of now. Got to won Florida, Ohio, and Virginia, then focus on the two states they think they have the best chance to win. Romney polling is probably more accurate than the guess work here, so they should know.

Yeah, we have been slacking, but now that the election is starting to kick it in to full gear, so will we here at Red Ohio. Next time, handicapping the VP stakes.

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One Comment on “Electoral Map Update #1”

  1. Shane Says:

    My name is Shane and I am an intern working for Congressman Tim Ryan. We would like to add you to our email list so that we can begin sending you information regarding what’s happening in Ohio. Is there an email address we can send this information to? You will be able to contact me at shane.oh17@gmail.com if you have any questions.

    Thank you for your time,
    Shane


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